April 23, 2008

  • The Popular Vote Myth

    The mass media continues to regurgitate the flawed meme that there is even such a thing as a national popular primary vote, and fail to acknowledge the specious nature of a national "popular" vote count in the first place. At least
    four caucus states do not report the actual votes at the caucuses used to determine delegates (the "votes" reported are actually local precinct delegate totals, from which the state delegate totals are derived). Therefore all popular vote counts are at least partially statistical estimates. Furthermore the different methods used in each
    state mean that turnout rates will vary greatly according to the method
    used.

    In other words, (1) it is impossible to determine an accurate popular vote count such that each individual vote really counts, and (2) even if it was possible to count the votes accurately, the differences in each state's methods mean that different states would be represented unequally and the meaning of a "national popular vote" is murky at best.

    Obama is exactly right in saying that the "popular vote" in this
    sort of setting is an abstract exercise. There's really no such thing
    as a national popular vote in a party primary, when each state uses
    such different methods of voting, counting, and reporting.